Most businesses operate on razor-thin margins.
Some of the lowest-paid workers are the most essential.
The two most important economic stories are the size of the business collapse and the magnitude of the stimulus.
No business model or investing strategy is proven until it survives a calamity.
Done right, forecasting is a delicate balance of probabilities. But people want certainty, especially when the stakes are high.
Opposite outcomes currently seem equally plausible. So whatever happens to the economy it will look obvious in hindsight.
Some people intuitively grasp the dangers of leverage.
There are no atheists in foxholes and no deficit hawks in meltdowns.
Catastrophe can be larger than you ever imagined but adaptation can be bigger than you ever considered.
History is only interesting because nothing is inevitable.
The biggest lesson from the last three months is that whatever your view of the future is, it’s probably wrong. Things change in ways people can’t imagine at times they never considered.